This was shared in Facebook and seems to be worth noting. Apparently, I am myself attest that there are a lot of hypers in all social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and etc. It's hard to filter who is saying correct or not but what I can say is educate yourself so that there is no need to be swayed by some Experts kuno. Be the master itself and stop being a newbie.
VICTIMS OF HYPE
By: The Responsible Trader
Part 1: Intro
Most of
the time, we have been approached to help traders whose trading accounts are
either “IPIT” (trading account caught in
a bad position) or “SUNOG” (trading account burned) saying that they got into
the situation because they are VOH – Victims of Hype. We would like to state that we are not
purporting ourselves to be trading doctors who hold the panacea for all trading
ills. We try our best to share knowledge
and information to help traders but we definitely cannot save a dying trading
account.
An
ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure. To avoid getting burned, we offer the
following advice.
Your
first Buy into any stock, either blue chip or speculative should be a test buy,
never an “ALL IN”, whether you generated the trading idea on your own or it was
given to you by a guru. Much more so if you got the advice from a guru. The most irresponsible advice I have seen
from a guru is to go ALL IN (unless your
guru tells you he has reliable inside information).
Why do
a test buy? You never can tell whether
the position you are taking is going to be a “Good Buy” or a “Good-Bye.”
What do
we consider as a “Good Buy?” If your test buy moves in your favor by 3% to 5%
within 5 days, then you may consider
adding in tranches. What do we consider
as “Good Bye?” If your test buy moves against you by 2% within the same time frame you can say “Good
Bye”, cut your losses and limit it to just perhaps your “burger meal” budget.
Positive
thinking vs. Right Thinking. The stock market is one area where positive
thinking does not work well. Right thinking works better. Positive thinking
leads to wishful thinking and wishful thinking leads to hope. Hope leads you to cling to losing positions
hoping that your position will improve.
As we all know, hope as a strategy does not work well in the stock
market. Right thinking makes you see the
situation as it is and enables you to make the right decisions.
Always
trade with a trading plan. Most often than not traders get into trouble because
of a lack of a trading plan. A simple drawing of trendlines, identifying
support and resistance, and establishing profit and cut loss points would be
sufficient for the purpose. The little time and effort spent doing this will
save you from much trouble later on.
Part 2 : The Anatomy of Hype
First
of all, we would like to state that in our first article, we are not alluding
to any person or any group in Facebook or otherwise. Part 1 of this article was posted in all
groups in Facebook where The Responsible Trader is a member and not just a
single one, in the same manner that we post our Top Ten Smart Money Moves every
trading day. The article was based on our
actual interactions with traders who call themselves VOH – Victims of Hype.
My
first encounter with VOH – Victims of Hype occurred during my stint as
Teacher/Mentor at Stock Market Pilipinas (stockmarketpilipinas.com) so the
subject matter is something that is very
familiar to me. I am encountering
the same again in Facebook, this time on a larger scale.
We
believe in fixing the problem rather than pointing the blame. The first thing to be done to address a problem
is to understand it in its entirety.
This way we could formulate solutions to minimize if not totally
eliminate it.
In
stock trading, we define HYPE as an exaggerated statement or price projection
that is not based in truth or in fact.
My
research has led me to the Gartner Hype Cycle used mostly in technology firms.
The same model, to a certain extent, also applies to stocks being hyped in the
Philippine stock market.
- Innovation trigger. An event, such as a product launch or product demonstration, creates sudden interest with the press.
- Peak of inflated expectations. Excitement and enthusiasm in the press and among technology leaders causes a bandwagon effect and results in unrealistic expectations.
- Trough of disillusionment. Impatience replaces enthusiasm as it becomes apparent that expectations for performance, adoption, and/or financial returns are not being met. The media now either focuses on unfavorable stories about the technology or abandons the topic altogether.
- Slope of enlightenment. Some businesses soldier on, working out problems, overcoming obstacles, and developing a deep understanding of how to best apply and benefit from the technology.
- Plateau of productivity. Real-world benefits are demonstrated and risks are lowered to acceptable levels. Adoption rates spike as the technology’s value becomes apparent.
Let us now apply the same model and relate it to one of the
stocks that was heavily hyped, Island Information & Technology, Inc. (IS)
- Innovation trigger. Rumor of the company being considered for backdoor listing by Huawei Technologies, Philippines, a leading global ICT solutions provider, started spreading around. Before this, hypers have already accumulated a substantial amount of the stock at lower prices for unloading later on.
- Peak of inflated expectations.Charts and analyses sprouted like mushrooms in social media and Facebook groups. Price projection for the stock to reach P1.00 per share started appearing. The stock became a favorite topic in Facebook, stock trading forums and chatrooms.
- Trough of disillusionment. Huawei Technologies, Philippines, denied any plan for backdoor listing proving that rumors are just based on speculations. Those who bought at the highs are now stuck and do not have a clue what to do next – to hold or to cut losses.
- Slope of enlightenment. To give hope to those who are stuck and prepare for further unloading later on, news of a joint venture with JDVC for mining started appearing. The hope was crushed when the joint venture did not push thru.
- Plateau of productivity. For hyped stocks in the Philippine stock market, this point is never reached. The stock hibernates until some groups start with Stage 1 again.
Based
on my observation, the HYPE is usually a prelude to a Pump and Dump Scheme.
Whether we like it or not, Hypes and Hypers are here to stay. Hopefully this
article has given us a clearer understanding so that we can avoid being a VOH –
Victims of Hype in the future.
Part 3: From Victims to Victors
Now
that we understand the Hype Cycle we are in a better position to address the
problem. As we previously stated we prefer to fix the problem rather than point
the blame. Pointing the blame to the Hypers would just be making the apparent
obvious. Pointing the blame to the
Victims would just be adding insult to injury.
You fix
a problem either by addressing the effects or addressing the cause. In this article we will try our best to do
both.
Let us
first address the effects. We are
assuming that the victims have gone ALL-IN because of the hype. As a result they have either lost their
trading capital or all of it has been stuck. We just hope that none of the
victims are in a similar situation like the one we read in one of the Facebook
posts – on the verge of contemplating suicide as a result. For those who have lost their trading
capital, there is no other way except to replenish it again.
For
those whose trading capitals are stuck, they may want to consider taking
portion of the loss depending on their loss tolerance, so that they will be
able to trade again. Our trading
capital is our primary means for conducting our trades and without it, no
matter how good we have become as a result of the experience, we won’t be able
to trade again.
Let us
now address the cause, to avoid becoming victims again. Based on my experience, the main cause is
MISGUIDED TRADING. In Part 1 of this article we have already given some advice
to avoid becoming a victim. In addition,
we give the following suggestions:
1. Go back
to basics. A basic knowledge of Technical Analysis – Trend lines, Support and
Resistance are very necessary in order to be able to trade. We have shared free
stock trading lesson videos in our Youtube Channel and tried to simplify the
course Master’s Certificate in Technical Analysis in plain and simple
language. Among others, the lessons
cover the basic things you need to know when is the appropriate time to buy a
stock. A few hours spent learning the
basics will save you from so much trouble later on.
2. Think
in terms of systems. Trading is best understood in a holistic manner. It is not
just stock picking and waiting for the price to go up. The systems approach is
illustrated in the diagram below:
All the
information you receive are inputs to the system and you process them by doing
either fundamental analysis, technical analysis or both. The output is your
trading plan and the results you obtain whether positive or negative serve as
your feedback mechanism for making adjustments.
Since
you now have a basic idea of the systems approach, for the Jesse Livermore fans
I would like to share this flowchart (not mine, just got it from the internet)
which might be able to help you in improving your trading skills.
Source:
http://www.livermoresecret.com/jesse-livermore-trading-system/overview-jesse-livermore-trading-system/
3. Learn
to walk before you run. Most of the people who approached us for help when asked
about their trading time frame did not even have any idea about the concept. As
a result of the hype, they have either engaged in scalping trades or day
trading without even knowing it. Below is a matrix where we made a comparison
of the physical as well as the mental demands required for each activity. With walking as a baseline, trading styles
are compared for better understanding.
In
Responsible Trading we categorize our Trading as Situational Trading and we
have divided these into trading styles to guide us in our objectives and
expectations. This also allows us to
take advantage of opportunities as we see them unfold in the market.
We
suggest gradual learning to get a feel of the market. Investment is the best way to learn because
you can do everything at your own pace and your own time. For those not keen on
investing, we suggest position trading or swing trading.
Being a
victim could be case of ignorance or of circumstance. Remaining a victim, however, is a choice – a
matter of decision. In trading as in
life you only get two things: excuses or
results and they are inversely proportional to each other. The more the
excuses, the less the results. The less
the excuses, the more the results.
We have
given several suggestions so that Victims can rise from their failures and
become Victors. This is an invitation to move from the darkness of MISGUIDED
TRADING to the light of RESPONSIBLE TRADING.
The choice and final decision is yours.
I believe you have already made the right one.
Source: